A Mercosur + 2 baseline for 2012: alternative scenarios for the supply of agricultural commodities

The objective of this study is to apply a mathematical simulation model of technology adoption by farmers to generate multiple 2012 baseline supply figures for selected agricultural commodities of the Mercosur + 2 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay + Chile and Bolivia), under analysis in the EUMercoPol Project (that is, the situation that would prevail in that year without a trade-liberalization agreement between Mercosur and the European Union), in line with the perceived need to postulate more than one baseline scenario for the medium-term outcome of the highly dynamic technological change process currently underway in the region.